SWM Colloquium 2016

June 3rd, 2016
Dr. Timo Trimborn, opens an external URL in a new window, TU Wien.
Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance.

Abstract: Recent empirical research has shown that  output and GDP  per capita in the aftermath of natural disasters are not necessarily lower than before the event.  In many cases, both are not significantly affected and surprisingly, can even  respond positively to natural disasters. Here, we propose a novel economic theory that explains these observations. Specifically, we show that GDP is driven above its pre-shock level when natural disasters destroy predominantly residential housing and other durable goods. Disasters destroying mainly productive capital, in contrast, are predicted to reduce GDP. Insignificant responses of GDP can be expected when disasters destroy about equally durable goods and productive capital. We also show that disasters, irrespective of whether their impact on GDP is positive, negative, or insignificant, entail considerable losses of aggregate welfare.

April 8th, 2016
Prof. Tatyana Krivobokova, opens an external URL in a new window, University of Göttingen.
Partial Least Squares for Dependent Data.

Abstract: The partial least squares algorithm for dependent data realisations is considered. Consequences of ignoring the dependence in the data for the performance of the algorithm are studied theoretically and numerically. It is shown that ignoring non-stationary dependence structures can lead to inconsistent estimation. A simple modification of the algorithm for dependent data is proposed and consistency of the corresponding estimators is shown. A protein dynamics example illustrates the superior predictive power of the method.