We host different speakers at our Economic Theory & Policy Seminar. Seminars take place most Mondays at 4pm in Sem. R. DA green 04.  

Upcoming topics and speakers will be posted below.

27. November 2023, 16:00 until 17:00

Theory & Policy Seminar / Fabian Siuda (WU Wien) / Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice

Seminar

Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice

Fabian Siuda, opens an external URL in a new window  (WU Wien)

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic structural model offertility with endogenous marriage formation, linking the timing of fertilityto its intensive (number of children) and extensive (having children) margin.The model features rational, forward-looking agents who make decisions onmarriage and fertility, and are exposed to declining fecundity rates over time.In every period, agents face a trade-off between work and child-rearing, andacross time there is a trade-off between having children early or late in life.The model parameters are identified using four distinct facts of the 2008 and2012 German Microcensus: (i) fertility until age 30 decreases with educationfor married and single women, (ii) fertility after age 30 increases witheducation for married and single women, (iii) childlessness increases withwomen’s education, (iv) marriage rates decrease with education for women andincrease with education for men. I obtain three main insights. First,postponement of childbirth combined with the natural decline of fecundity overtime can explain up to 15% of childlessness, depending on education. Second, byestimating the model separately for East and West Germany, I find thatinstitutions and economic conditions matter: the two major factors forchildlessness in West Germany are postponement of childbirth and highopportunity costs of children due to lack of public childcare. By contrast, inEast Germany, social sterility plays a larger role. Finally, using theestimated model parameters for counterfactual analysis, I evaluate consequencesof reoccurring labor market interruptions and policies aimed at reconcilingwork and family life.

Calendar entry

Event location

TU Wien, Sem.R. DB gelb 04
1040 Vienna
Wiedner Hauptstr. 8-10, Seminarroom: DB04 , 4th floor, yellow area

 

Organiser

ECON
Julia Hutter
julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at

 

Public

Yes

 

Entrance fee

No

 

Registration required

No

Theory & Policy Seminar / Fabian Siuda (WU Wien) / Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice

Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice

Fabian Siuda, opens an external URL in a new window  (WU Wien)

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic structural model offertility with endogenous marriage formation, linking the timing of fertilityto its intensive (number of children) and extensive (having children) margin.The model features rational, forward-looking agents who make decisions onmarriage and fertility, and are exposed to declining fecundity rates over time.In every period, agents face a trade-off between work and child-rearing, andacross time there is a trade-off between having children early or late in life.The model parameters are identified using four distinct facts of the 2008 and2012 German Microcensus: (i) fertility until age 30 decreases with educationfor married and single women, (ii) fertility after age 30 increases witheducation for married and single women, (iii) childlessness increases withwomen’s education, (iv) marriage rates decrease with education for women andincrease with education for men. I obtain three main insights. First,postponement of childbirth combined with the natural decline of fecundity overtime can explain up to 15% of childlessness, depending on education. Second, byestimating the model separately for East and West Germany, I find thatinstitutions and economic conditions matter: the two major factors forchildlessness in West Germany are postponement of childbirth and highopportunity costs of children due to lack of public childcare. By contrast, inEast Germany, social sterility plays a larger role. Finally, using theestimated model parameters for counterfactual analysis, I evaluate consequencesof reoccurring labor market interruptions and policies aimed at reconcilingwork and family life.