Veranstaltungen

23. Oktober 2023, 16:00 bis 17:30

Theory & Policy Seminar / Michal Marencak (National Bank of Slovakia) / Inflation Expectations at Times of High and Low Inflation

Seminar

"Inflation Expectations at Times of High and Low Inflation"

Michal Marencak, öffnet eine externe URL in einem neuen Fenster (National Bank of Solvakia)

This paper presents two novel findings on household inflation expectations during periods of high and low inflation. First, the impact of inflation expectations on durable consumption varies over time and depends on the expected inflation regime. Anticipating rising inflation relative to positive inflation enhances the readiness to spend on durables during periods of surging inflation but not during deflationary times. Moreover, the absence of explicit inflation expectations reduces consumption propensity, particularly during times of surging inflation. Second, outside the stable inflation range (2-3%), individual expected inflation levels drive the variance of aggregate inflation expectations (intensive margin). However, it isthe anticipation of higher or positive inflation (extensive margin) that influences the willingness to consume. These findings suggest regime- and agent-specific Euler equations.

Kalendereintrag

Veranstaltung Details

Veranstaltungsort
TU Wien
1040 Vienna
Wiedner Hauptstr. 8-10, Freihaus - Seminarroom DB04, yellow area, 4th floor
Veranstalter
ECON
Julia Hutter
julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at
Öffentlich
Ja
Kostenpflichtig
Nein
Anmeldung erforderlich
Nein