Emission Forecast

PROVEM: LCA emission forecasts of motor vehicle fleets

LCA emission forecasts of motor vehicles are a helpful tool to steer the current drive change in an environmentally friendly direction. Compared to standard emission forecasts, which only assess emissions during driving (“tank-to-wheel”), life cycle assessments (“LCA”) analyze the entire vehicle life cycle, from vehicle manufacturing to energy supply to end-of-life treatment. The ISO 14040 definition of LCA emission forecasts is as follows:

“Life cycle assessment is a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product, taking into account environmental aspects throughout the life cycle of a product (i.e., “cradle to grave”) from raw material extraction through production and use to disposal.”

This holistic view of emissions released by individual vehicles over their entire life cycles and not just emissions, that the vehicle emits while on the road, is essential. Particularly in view of the large number of currently available drive technologies in the automotive industry, the point at which emissions of a vehicle are released varies greatly between drivetrains. Therefore, only holistic life cycle assessments allow a viable comparison of vehicles with different drive technologies.

Since the introduction of emission legislations, the Institute of Vehicle Drivetrains and Automotive Engineering (IFA) has been engaged in emission calculations and future forecasts. Based on these decades of research experience, the institute’s own software tool “PROVEM” was developed. In the current version emission calculations as well as forecasts are taken a step further:

The software allows not only the assessment of individual vehicles, but also the consideration of entire real vehicle fleets. The historical, current and expected future emissions of a fleet under investigation can be determined. In order to enable an acceptable comparison of emission development, all vehicles undergo a holistic life cycle analysis, see Figure 1. By specifying different boundary conditions and scenarios for future fleet development, detailed emission forecasts for the expected fleet development can be calculated. This tool can be variably adapted to different questions in order to achieve meaningful results.

The software “PROVEM” allows the analysis of individual:

  • Vehicle fleets of companies, cities, countries, …
  • Vehicle classes: Cars, motorcycles, commercial vehicles, buses…
  • Emission subdivision into vehicle production, primary energy production (well-to-tank), vehicle operation (tank-to-wheel), repairs and wear parts, recycling and export.
  • Future scenarios regarding stock development, drive concepts, driving patterns, …

As added value for the customer, the software “PROVEM” provides information about:

  • The historical and future emission development of the considered fleet.
  • Feedback on the effects of planned measures and fleet modernizations.
  • Recommendations for actions to achieve sustainable emission reductions.
  • Compliance with future legislations, international agreements, …



Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn. Werner Tober

Phone: +43 1 58801 31522